Data regarding the second covid-19 wave, which are propping governor João Dória lockdown measures, show that the number of new cases is similar to the first wave, contrasting with the reduction of covid-19 ICU beds by whooping 36%.
João Dória is a regular in international media, a compulsive liar about the situation in Brazil and now rises as the responsible for throwing his state into total chaos.
How could a Contingency Center, created exactly to manage this specific crises, make such an absurd mistake?
I have made a study using official data from the Brazilian Health Ministry, using raw csv data and data analysis with Excel Power Query.
This way, I was able to reproduce the chart for new covid-19 cases specifically in the State of São Paulo.
Overview of First and Second Waves in São Paulo
São Paulo government based its entire fight against the pandemic in an alleged scientific Contingency Center, now coordinated by UNIFESP professor Paulo Menezes, succeeding a long line of coordinators that failed miserably since the start of the crisis.
The peak of new cases on the first wave was reached during the Epidemiological Week 33, with 75,809 new cases. Second wave has presented a max of 79,132, or just 4% above the first wave’s peak.
In other words, the second wave, in respect to the contamination level is perfectly similar to the first, which puts in question the measures used now, with more restrictions than what was done during the first wave. The answer lies ahead.
Overview of New Death, First and Second Waves in São Paulo.
In the study of new covid-19 related deaths in São Paulo, however, the peak of the first wave was seen in the Epidemiological Week 29, with 1,945 deaths, against 2,114 deaths on week 10, 2021, a 8.6% rise.
Either this new wave has a superior lethality rate or there is a problem regarding the treatment of new cases, especially those that can evolve into critical conditions. I don’t have the technical capacity to evaluate this specific aspect.
ICU Beds Availability in SP
Capturing official data from the federal government was a smooth task, as usual.
In the state source, however, there is a clear lack of transparency, especially regarding data on the availability of covid-19 beds, both intensive and hospital beds.
Most of the information I have retrieved, came through third hand information: media releases and approximated calculations based in the numbers of hospital and ICU occupation and the alleged percentage of occupied ICU beds.
There is no official data from the São Paulo Covid-19 Contingency Center, regarding the total availability of beds, both hospital and ICU. Therefore, the validation of the information is damaged and prompts worries about the political use of the present health crisis.
ICU beds in the first wave in São Paulo
According to an official press release at the State of São Paulo website, on Jun, 8th, 2020,
“… the number of ICU beds jumped from 3,500 at the beginning of the pandemic to more than 7,000 due to the delivery of ventilators, which have allowed the growth of ICU capacity in the entire state health network”.Ocupação de leitos de UTI apresenta queda no Estado de SP | Governo do Estado de São Paulo (saopaulo.sp.gov.br)
We can deduce, therefore, that São Paulo had 3,500 ICU beds before March, 2020 and more than 7,000 before Jun, 8th, right?
ICU Beds in the Second Wave in São Paulo
In March 15th of the current year, however, information regarding the ICU beds occupation from the intelligent integrated system of the state health authority are available and shows the existence of 5,562 people in hospital beds and 4,044 in ICU beds.
From another news, we found the information from G1, that São Paulo had reached 90% of covid-19 ICU beds occupation.
From logic deduction, we find the number of 4,493 ICU beds in the state of São Paulo at the present moment.
In September, 2020, meaning only two months before the return of the restrictions, governor Dória closed the last field hospital dedicated to covid-19.
Easy to verify a monster 35.8% drop (more than a third) in the availability of beds, during a pandemic, deemed deadly by the very same Governor João Dória, his advisors, secretaries and contingency centers and intelligence systems coordinator. Incredible.
An Overview on São Paulo’s Government performance during the pandemic.
The results of the data compilation and presumed data on ICU beds in São Paulo, shows that the SP government, advised by the Covid-19 Contingency Center, reduced the number of beds after the first wave and did not open more beds since October, 2020, when the second wave was already being announced.
Not only the study from Stanford Inuversity, I mentioned in this article, Nature Magazine released a new one demonstrando showing that lockdowns showed no results in preventing the advance of the pandemic.
Doctors in desperation
On the last March 13th, Dr. Davi Rodrigues, released his own video in which he desperately calls the inclusion of early treatment protocols to reduce the number of cases that evolve in to a critical state.
The time has arrived for decisive measures from the São Paulo Public Attorneys and, in its absence, it is time for the Brazilian State’s strong arm.